Where is it?
Correspondent:: "iDRMRSR"
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 13:41:00 -0500
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Damn, the polls closed over in Iraq. I wanna see the projections! I wanna
hear the exit polls! I wanna see the map of Iraq colored in all 350 some
odd shades of party, precinct by precinct, as the vote is counted. I wanna
see the liberal Iraqis whine on and on about how they had to wait in line
and fill out provisional ballots and shit like that.
If all my tax money for the next three lifetimes is going into this
election, I wanna see a DAMN GOOD one!
Though I unnerstand in some places, the exit polls are sampled by the local
coroners once the smoke clears. That's the diff between Iraq and the US.
You don't usually get shot in the US until after you leave the polling
place.
All those terrorists over there and they still can't bag as many dailies as
cracked up porch monkeys on a hot Saturday night in Detroit can do. Once
it's down to about 50-60 a day, Iraqi's should just give up and start
getting a life.
[*]
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Correspondent:: "nu-monet v7.0"
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 13:51:45 -0700
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iDRMRSR wrote:
>
> If all my tax money for the next three lifetimes
> is going into this election, I wanna see a DAMN
> GOOD one!
This is pretty good, but they expect it to take about
five days for all the tallies to come through, but this
site has a lot of the 'color' until then:
http://www.friendsofdemocracy.info/
IWPR does xlations of Iraqi news media, so here is the
Iraqi take on things:
http://www.iwpr.net/iraq_index1.html
This is where most statistical results will come
through first, I would guess:
http://www.electionworld.org/iraq.htm
The most important number is "12.4 million registered
voters", which will be the base figure for most calcs.
For example, a "50% voter turnout" would be 6.2 Million.
Current estimates are for 80%, or 9.92 Million.
But then you need to break down the turnout by what
percentage are Sunni, Shia and Kurd. And then figure
out relative representation based on the number of
seats each group has one.
Lots of other factors matter, too. For example, the
way Sistani set up the Shiite slate, the most radical
of their candidates are at the bottom of the list, so
are almost guaranteed to be shut out. That is, the top
20, for example, are guaranteed to win, the next 40 are
maybes, the next 40 are the marginals who will only win
if the Shia vote is overwhelming, and the last 20 can
forget about it, unless nobody but Shia vote.
But the Sunni and Kurd slates are set up completely
differently.
The Kurds are set up to keep their focus on retaining
Iraq federalism, balancing their two big factions, but
also nudging out those groups who want to split Kurdistan
off, or go for "greater Kurdistan", etc. To their credit,
they have some very smart, western educated leaders who
have been working non-stop since the invasion to get their
political, economic and military house in order. They
have even established broad but discreet relations with
Israel. Kurdistan, in whatever form, is here to stay.
The Sunnis are a hash, however. They have no really good
leadership, are overburdened with weak and antiquated
authority systems that get in the way, such as tribal
leaders, shura councils, and other crapola. Their only
real advantage is that the Shia and Kurds are going to do
a fraction of the crap to them that they did when they
were in power. However, on the plus side, they know what
leadership is, and how to train their children to succeed,
so they won't become completely cut off.
The REAL fun is the one-two gut punch the elections in
Afghanistan and Iraq are having around the whole middle
east. All the tyrants and juntas are having to swallow
handfuls of Tums and consider the possibility of democrats
in their backyards. Already the Syrians are sweating
bullets, the Saudis are planning local elections next
month, the smaller Gulf states are all making reforms,
and even Egypt has been unbalanced.
--
"I can imagine a LOT when it comes
to unimaginable power."
-- nu-monet
Correspondent:: brthrn@dangermedia.org
Date: 30 Jan 2005 15:16:16 -0800
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"Some common nostalgia?or the cities of home; for the train or only
its whistle??ay have held them for a moment."